An estimated 2.1 million Ukrainians will require urgent winter-related support in 2026–2027. However, their specific needs vary widely across communities.

To inform our winter response, GER3 conducted a comprehensive needs assessment at the local (starostat) level in Sumska and Khersonska oblasts. Using mixed-method data collection, we sought to understand and prioritize needs and design programming that addresses the most pressing challenges in each village we aim to support.

The findings revealed widespread risks. Many households lack both the financial means and physical access needed to obtain sufficient winter fuel and protect their health and safety as temperatures plummet.

While much of the analysis reflects broader winter-related risks across rural, front-line areas of Ukraine, the assessment also provided important insights into local dynamics that shaped our approach:

• Regional firewood suppliers reported limited stocks and extreme seasonal price inflation.
• People with mobility challenges described difficulties arranging accessible firewood deliveries.

One woman from Sumska oblast who received cash assistance in 2025–2026 told us:

“Last year I received a cash payment of UAH 19,400 for heating fuel. I ended up buying poor-quality firewood: sawmill offcuts that produced very little heat. Throughout the winter, I could only heat one room, and the temperature inside the house stayed between 5 and 10 degrees Celsius.”

Details like these may not appear in aggregate needs data, but they can determine whether assistance ultimately works.

You can read our full assessment here: https://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/ukraine-winterization-needs-assessment-2026-2027-winter-season-sumska-and-khersonska-oblasts